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A rule that cannot be shown to generalise across symbols must not be reported as an 80% model."}}}, "market_edge": {"timeframes": {"5m": {"timeframe": "5m", "available": true, "n": 9172, "period": ["2026-08-28", "2026-09-29"], "label_agreement": 0.8493, "entry_price_mean": 0.5011, "tiers": {"all priced windows": {"label": "all priced windows", "n": 9172, "label_disagreement_rate": 0.1507, "win_rate_money_label": 0.4767, "ci95": [0.4665, 0.4869], "win_rate_model_label": 0.522, "avg_entry_price": 0.5059, "median_entry_price": 0.505, "entry_price_p10_p90": [0.485, 0.525], "avg_model_p_side": 0.5266, "avg_model_edge": 0.0208, "share_with_positive_model_edge": 0.8401, "ev_per_unit_staked": -0.0292, "roi_per_unit_staked": -0.0577}, "model actionable (p_side>=0.55)": {"label": "model actionable (p_side>=0.55)", "n": 1144, "label_disagreement_rate": 0.1871, "win_rate_money_label": 0.4108, "ci95": [0.3827, 0.4396], "win_rate_model_label": 0.5594, "avg_entry_price": 0.5114, "median_entry_price": 0.505, "entry_price_p10_p90": [0.495, 0.535], "avg_model_p_side": 0.5597, "avg_model_edge": 0.0483, "share_with_positive_model_edge": 0.9755, "ev_per_unit_staked": -0.1005, "roi_per_unit_staked": -0.1966}, "published 5m rule": {"label": "published 5m rule", "n": 163, "label_disagreement_rate": 0.2086, "win_rate_money_label": 0.4601, "ci95": [0.3854, 0.5367], "win_rate_model_label": 0.6442, "avg_entry_price": 0.5155, "median_entry_price": 0.515, "entry_price_p10_p90": [0.495, 0.535], "avg_model_p_side": 0.5746, "avg_model_edge": 0.0592, "share_with_positive_model_edge": 0.9939, "ev_per_unit_staked": -0.0553, "roi_per_unit_staked": -0.1074}, "published 15m rule": {"label": "published 15m rule", "n": 92, "label_disagreement_rate": 0.1739, "win_rate_money_label": 0.4457, "ci95": [0.3483, 0.5474], "win_rate_model_label": 0.5978, "avg_entry_price": 0.5132, "median_entry_price": 0.515, "entry_price_p10_p90": [0.495, 0.535], "avg_model_p_side": 0.5579, "avg_model_edge": 0.0447, "share_with_positive_model_edge": 0.9674, "ev_per_unit_staked": -0.0675, "roi_per_unit_staked": -0.1315}}, "market_calibration": [{"band": "0.4-0.6", "n": 9133, "market_p": 0.5011, "realized_up": 0.4974, "ci95": [0.4872, 0.5077], "gap": -0.0037}], "brier": {"market": 0.24938, "model_on_own_label": 0.24893}, "caveat": "Polymarket settles on Chainlink BTC/USD; the model was validated on Binance USDT-M TWAP. 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Ties can disagree."}, "1h": {"timeframe": "1h", "available": false}}}}